John Homenuk is a meteorologist and creator of New York Metro Weather, which provides daily forecasts for THE CITY’s weekday newsletter The Scoop.

Wintry precipitation is definitely on its way this weekend. But will it break the city’s snowless streak?

It has been nearly 700 days since the last measurable daily snowfall of 1 inch or more in New York City. The record-breaking snow drought might finally end, but the details of how the storm impacts the five boroughs remain complex.

A low pressure system will develop off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Saturday, and strengthen by Sunday morning as it tracks northward towards Long Island. Forecast models suggest that precipitation will move over the area after sunset on Saturday, initially as a mixture of rain and snow. 

From there, weather forecast model’s predictions split. One group suggests that periods of snow will happen through Sunday morning, bringing the city its first daily snowfall over 1 inch since February 2022. Winter lovers rejoice!

Others, however, suggest that temperatures will be too warm, with a rain and snow mix remaining the main type of  precipitation and no meaningful accumulation. (Sorry, would-be sledders.)

There are factors supporting each side. On the less snow side of the arena is the presence of only marginally cold air and warm ocean temperatures. That points toward a future where the atmosphere will be too warm to support consistent snowfall. But on the other end, is the presence of a coastal low pressure and heavy precipitation, which can sometimes cool down the atmosphere in a process called dynamic cooling. If those two factors combine, we could get measurable snow.

Overall, the forecast still remains very uncertain and New York City is likely to be in the muddy, slushy middle ground once again. A blend of forecast models suggests periods of snow on Sunday morning with final accumulations around 1 to 2 inches in the metro area. Lower amounts are favored near the beaches and higher snowfall totals – perhaps as much as 6 inches — are possible in the higher elevations of New Jersey, the lower Hudson Valley and Rockland County. 

Meteorologists know how complex these storms can be, and how much of a headache it is when the city is right on the dividing line between snow and rain. As a result, we’re approaching this system cautiously. Expect adjustments to the forecast in the next day or so as the details and intricacies become more clear.